The Buyers of AI Are Still Waiting for the Payoff | The Daily Spark

Financial Markets & Risk Dynamics August 09, 2026 The Buyers of AI Are Still Waiting for the Payoff About the Author Torsten Slok Partner, Chief Economist Share The S&P 493 is spending heavily on AI. But it is not showing up in profit margins, see the first chart below. Looking at the individual sectors of the S&P 500 outside tech shows that the picture is flat, cyclical or worse, see charts 2, 3 and 4. Health care margins have halved since 2015; consumer staples are stuck near 6% and consumer discretionary near 8%; energy and materials have given back most of their 2022-23 gains; real estate is going sideways; and the only genuine improvements look like an ordinary cyclical recovery rather than a technology-driven step change. The bottom line is that the AI capex boom is so far only showing up in the sellers' margins, not the buyers'. This is important because the longer it takes the S&P 493 to generate ROI, the bigger the downside risks to an economy and a market this concentrated in the AI trade. For more, see here . 4 pages Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 4 pages Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 4 pages Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 4 pages Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist Download high-res charts Are you a financial professional? Tell us your role for a more relevant Apollo.com experience. I'm a Wealth Professional I'm an Institutional Investor I'm neither of these Thanks for letting us know. Your preference has been saved. Disclosures This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others in whole or in part without the express consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”). Apollo makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the statements made during this presentation, including, but not limited to, statements obtained from third parties. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the speaker as of the date indicated. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update this presentation to account for such changes. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed during this presentation will continue. Statements made throughout this presentation are not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice and do not constitute an investment recommendation or investment advice. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information discussed during this presentation, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, product or service, including interest in any investment product or fund or account managed or advised by Apollo. Certain statements made throughout this presentation may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Sign Up for The Daily Spark Get daily data-driven insights from industry-leading economist Dr. Torsten Slok delivered right to your inbox, every day. Subscribe